Who Should Hawk Fans Be Angry With if the Fiesta Bowl Chooses Penn State?

One week from today we'll know whether Iowa is going to the BCS in Arizona, or the Capital Bowl in Florida. If Iowa gets the Fiesta Bowl nod, I don't think you'll hear too much complaining from Penn State fans; after all, Iowa did beat PSU handily in Happy Valley. If, on the other hand, Penn State gets selected over Iowa, expect all hell to break loose on Iowa football chat boards.

So let's assume this does happen - who should Iowa fans direct their anger toward?

Let's start with the most obvious option - the Fiesta Bowl selection committee. Penn State fans are pretty confident that the Fiesta Bowl will choose PSU over Iowa, and they tend to cite two main reasons: Penn State's brand recognition and the mystique surrounding Joe Paterno. A few sources also believe that the fact that Penn State has already gone to the Fiesta Bowl six times and that Paterno "has known John Junker, the CEO and president of the Fiesta Bowl, for three decades" can only further bolster Penn State's chances.

If the Fiesta Bowl does end up choosing Penn State, I don't think it will have anything to do with Joe Paterno's friendship with the Bowl CEO, it will have everything to do with money. Period. The two things that matter to the Fiesta Bowl are butts in seats (selling out the stadium) and TV ratings. Selling out the stadium means that the teams playing have brought tens of thousands of fans to Glendale, booked hotel rooms, eaten at local restaurants, and paid for expensive game tickets. That's pretty much the original point of bowl games - its a great way to bring money to the local economy.

I'm very confident that Iowa could sell enough tickets themselves to sell out the entire stadium, and I'm fairly confident that Penn State could do the same (though, interestingly, the last time Penn State played in the Fiesta Bowl it was the lowest attendance of any Fiesta Bowl since 1985!). Financially, I think this is a draw for the Fiesta Bowl - Iowa and Penn State both have great fan bases and will make local businesses very happy.

Next, let's look at TV ratings. TV ratings keep corporate sponsors (Tostidos for example) happy and keep the networks happy. Penn State fans believe this is where they have an advantage over Iowa, given the PSU and Paterno brand. On the surface, I agree, but I think there are two compelling arguments for Iowa here as well. First, if you assume that Iowa is the better team, Iowa should play a better game than PSU, which would likely mean the game would be closer longer and keep people watching. Second, although Penn State is in a highly populated TV market, they do compete against 7 professional teams in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (and I'm not even including NY teams here). Iowa, on the other hand, competes against no professional teams. So even though Iowa is a small market, I'm betting that more TV sets per capita will be on in Iowa for the Iowa bowl game than in PA for a PSU bowl game.

So again, let's call it a draw. Perhaps the safe bet is to go with PSU and tradition, but I can make an argument either way from a TV perspective for Iowa or PSU. So to put it another way, if the Fiesta Bowl chooses PSU over Iowa, you can't really blame them. Financially, they are in a win-win situation with two teams with great travelling fan bases and decent TV ratings. If I ran the Fiesta Bowl, I'd make my decision based on finances, not on any emotional arguments like "Iowa beat PSU." If you want to keep your job as the CEO, you do what is best for your company.

Which means you can't blame the Fiesta Bowl if Iowa isn't selected. So that really leaves us with two culprits - the BCS and the NCAA. Let's start with the BCS. The BCS has a collection of bizarre rules that ultimately tend to benefit Iowa more than hurt us. Schools like Boise State and TCU - which go undefeated but are virtually guaranteed no shot at a national championship - have a lot more to cry about when it comes to the BCS than Iowa does. So while the BCS is on many levels ridiculous and might end up relegating Iowa to the Capital One Bowl this year, I really don't think Iowa fans can complain too much about how the BCS treats Big Ten schools.

So that leaves one possible culprit - the NCAA. College football is the last major sport - probably in the world - that doesn't have a playoff system to determine a champion. While I doubt that Iowa could beat Florida or Texas in a National Championship game, stranger things have happened. Just ask Jim Valvano and North Carolina State, or the US Hockey team in 1980. Upsets happen in all major sports, but the NCAA seems hell-bent on throttling as much drama at the end of the college football season as possible. Of course, money again comes into this, because those 30+ bowl games are a cash cow for everyone involved. I imagine minds smarter than me could come up with an equally profitable post-season system, like 2-3 rounds of playoffs like, say, the NFL or even Division I-AA (or whatever it is called now). But for whatever reason, those minds seem to be dormant at the moment.

In sum, if Iowa doesn't get the chance to play a BCS game against a great opponent, despite having an incredible season, don't fault the Fiesta Bowl or even the BCS, fault the college football system. Because this year it may be Iowa, Boise State and TCU that get shafted, but next year the same thing will happen, and it will keep happening. And that's the real shame.

Iowa vs. Northern Iowa Reminds Me of the Kennedy Nixon Debate

Anyone who heard about Iowa's 17-16 victory over Northern Iowa no doubt has one conclusion about the game: wow, Iowa must be waaaaay over-rated. And, indeed, the AP and USA Today polls came out today and Iowa had been bumped out of the rankings.

Anyone who watched the game, however, might come to a different conclusion. I did. My conclusion is this: Northern Iowa is a damn good football team. On a good day, they could beat a top 15 team, and last Saturday was a very good day for them. Quarterback Pat Grace was pretty much flawless, the senior-led offensive line dominated, and other than two poorly timed blocked kicks, the team made few mistakes. Iowa, on the other hand, had plenty of problems, most of which are correctable. QB Rick Stanzi was trying too hard in the first half, but returned to form after halftime. The offensive line didn't impress, but they were missing two key starters and basically had the 4th and 5th string running backs behind them. The defensive looked a little rusty up front and in the linebacking core, but Sash and Spivey looked awesome at Safety and CB, respectively.

To put it another way, what we might have seen was a rusty, over-confident Top 25 team that always underperforms in September with nothing to win and everything to lose, against a senior-led, talented, and well-prepared squad for which this was the most important game of the entire season.

It reminds me of the famous Kennedy-Nixon debate of 1960, where radio listeners concluded Nixon won but TV viewers (who saw a disheveled Nixon and a chic Kennedy) concluded Kennedy was the winner. The vast majority of the college football world didn't see the game, and hence are the 'radio listeners' of the Kennedy-Nixon debate.

Does this mean that Iowa is going to run the table and go undefeated? Of course not. As a general rule of thumb, when an Iowa team doesn't run the table against I-AA opponents with 30-40 point wins, it does not bode well for the rest of the season. But for me at least, the jury is still out. The next three weeks are going to be progressively more difficult challenges for the Hawkeyes - Iowa State, then Arizona, then at Penn State. We'll have a better idea by then.

Iowa - FIU Quick Hits

1. Stanzi looked better. But one game does not a successful career make. I'm still withholding judgment on both QBs until I see them play a real team.

2. Kicking game - not good. Kickoffs to the 10 yard line, that won't fly in the Big Ten.

3. O-line looks solid, D-line looks solid.

4. You have to beat I-AA or new I-A teams by 40 points or else you know it is going to be a long year.

5. Overall - optimistic, but I think the Michigan State game will be the first real test where we see if this team has a chance to go 10-2 or 7-6.

5 Things The Hawks Must Do To Have a Chance Against Wisconsin

1. Be within 10 points at halftime. Wisconsin is a high scoring team, but their defense is questionable. Iowa is a low scoring team with good defense. If Iowa gets behind by more than 10 points, it will be hard to catch up.

2. Pressure the quarterback. The D-line needs to step up. So far this year, few quarterbacks have had much to worry about. If the quarterback doesn't worry, it opens up a passing game. If the passing game is open, it means that the running game will be even more open. Against Wisconsin, that's a bad thing.

3. Protect Christensen. The O-line, like the D-line, also needs to play a huge game. I've seen improvement game-over-game, but this is the first real test.

4. Wrap up tackles. There were a lot of missed tackles in the Iowa State game. Against Wisconsin and P.J. Hill, missed tackles aren't an option.

5. Be average on special teams. I'm not suggesting that we need to block kicks or hit 55 yard field goals. We just need to "not be terrible." Don't allow any block field goals, make the easy 30 yarders, prevent kick off returns, and maybe get 10-15 yards on our returns.

Amazingly, a lot of this is really just the basics. This Hawk team has some decent players, but it is certainly no loaded like the teams of 2002-2005. That means that mistakes can't be covered up. Play a solid game and the Hawks have a chance.

My (sad) prediction: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 10.

Iowa versus Syracuse: 5 Signs Iowa is A Good Team

Put me in the "cautiously optimistic" camp right now on the Hawks. I'll be ready to move into the "fully optimistic" realm if the following five things happen in the upcoming game against Syracuse.

1. The Hawks win by at least 28 points.
2. Jake Christensen completes at least 50% of his passes.
3. Iowa rushes for at least 200 yards.
4. The first team defense gives up no more than 14 points.
5. No more than one field goal or point-after is missed.

Look back at all the great Hawk teams - they all crush their opponents in the pre-season, they have a reasonably good quarterback, a strong running team, solid defense, and dependable special teams. If you miss any of these qualities, you are destined for middle-of-the-pack status, meaning either barely getting into a bowl in Texas, or perhaps even spending the holidays in Michigan.

Even More Pictures from Hawk Game in Chicago . . .

Pictures from Iowa versus Northern Illinois at Soldier Field in Chicago